Phoenix Retirement Community Market Report, April 2020
March Pending listings down 56 percent in Phoenix retirement communities
There is no question Covid-19 has had an effect on the housing market in Phoenix retirement communities. In March, pending listings were down 56 percent compared to last year. With recreation centers closed in all area retirement communities and Sun City West shutting down its golf courses, as of April 14th, many residents are taking the virus very seriously and staying home. Snowbirds have flocked back home, and those with plans to be here, on buying trips, have canceled with me and are sheltering in place. I did have 2 listings close in March, which means home sales are happening. Please refer to the four tables below with March stats to see how your favorite community faired compared to the others. The focus is on the top 10 west valley phoenix retirement communities I work in.
Active and New Listings Stats March 2020 (Table 1)
*This table is interactive, you can play with the drop-down arrows to reorganize.**Stats from AZ MLS. Info deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
| Retirement Communities | Active Listings | Last Year +/- | New Listings | Last Year +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Traditions | 35 | -3% | 17 | -6% |
| CantaMia | 20 | 33% | 9 | 13% |
| Corte Bella | 22 | -41% | 7 | -46% |
| PebbleCreek | 80 | -17% | 28 | -28% |
| Sun City | 307 | -19% | 215 | -14% |
| Sun City Festival | 31 | -46% | 27 | 4% |
| Sun City Grand | 120 | -18% | 59 | -36% |
| Sun City West | 186 | -30% | 140 | -10% |
| Trilogy at Vistancia | 61 | -30% | 38 | 58% |
| Victory at Verrado | 26 | -38% | 7 | -53% |
| Copy Right 2020 Sharon Rowlson |  |
The number of homes for sale and active listings was mostly down. CantaMia and Arizona Traditions were the exceptions. CantaMia with 33% more listing than last March, and Arizona Traditions is virtually the same. The other 8 communities were down within a range of -17% to – 46%. Sun City Festival and Corte Bella were down the most.
Are new listings coming on the market? New listings were mostly down in March Of note, Sun City West was down 100%, Trilogy at Vistancia down 58%, and Victory at Verrado down 53%. Those that saw more new listings were CantMia, Sun City Festival, and Trilogy at Vistancia.
Pending & Sold Listings Stats March 2020 (Table 2)
*This table is interactive, you can play with the drop-down arrows to reorganize.**Stats from AZ MLS. Info deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
| Retirement Communities | Pending Listings | Last Year +/- | Sold Listings | Last Year +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Traditions | 8 | -27% | 18 | 64% |
| CantaMia | 2 | -71% | 4 | -33% |
| Corte Bella | 2 | -83% | 10 | -23% |
| PebbleCreek | 15 | -55% | 41 | 58% |
| Sun City | 122 | -43% | 215 | 21% |
| Sun City Festival | 12 | -50% | 32 | 78% |
| Sun City Grand | 32 | -54% | 72 | 31% |
| Sun City West | 79 | -54% | 144 | -50% |
| Trilogy at Vistancia | 13 | -46% | 25 | 14% |
| Victory at Verrado | 3 | -75% | 12 | 50% |
| Copy Right 2020 Sharon Rowlson | |
Are homes going under contract in March? Yes, but pending listings were down more than 50%. On average, Phoenix retirement communities experienced a 56% decrease in pending listings in March. Corte Bella led the way with an 83% decrease, and Arizona Traditions had the least decrease at -27%.
Are homes selling? The answer is yes, but in some communities, more than others. Sold listings in March were all over the board. CantaMia had 35% fewer sales than last year, which explains why there were more listings in March on the market. PebbleCreek and Sun City Festival rocked with high sales in March, up 58% and +78%, respectively.
Average Days & Absorption Rate Stats March 2020 (Table 3)
| Retirement Communities | Average Days | Last Year +/- | Absorption Rate | Last Year +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Traditions | 74 | 72% | 3.72 Mo | -7% |
| CantaMia | 160 | 99% | 5.71 Mo | 8% |
| Corte Bella | 43 | -58% | 2.15 Mo | -30% |
| PebbleCreek | 76 | -11% | 3.29 Mo | -26% |
| Sun City | 55 | -4% | 1.68 Mo | -20% |
| Sun City Festival | 55 | -36% | 1.62 Mo | -56% |
| Sun City Grand | 55 | 0% | 2.29 Mo | -19% |
| Sun City West | 40 | -29% | 1.56 Mo | -32% |
| Trilogy at Vistancia | 102 | 24% | 3.4 Mo | -35% |
| Victory at Verrado | 89 | 39% | 3.55 Mo | -75% |
| Copy Right 2020 Sharon Rowlson | |
Average days on market in March saw several communities with decreases as buyers scooped up properties. Corte Bella led the way with Sun City Festival and Sun City West not too far behind. Those with the most increases included CantaMia and Arizona Traditions.
The absorption rate was down for all communities except one. Some were down significantly. Victory at Verrado saw a 75% decrease with 3.55 months absorption rate.
Average Sold Price & Sold to List Ratio Stats March 2020 (Table 4)
| Retirement Communities | Avg Sold Price | Last Year +/- | Sold to List ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Traditions | $303,117 | 25% | 97.9% |
| CantaMia | $326,750 | 6% | 98.7% |
| Corte Bella | $460,440 | 7% | 98.2% |
| PebbleCreek | $399,571 | 9% | 97.7% |
| Sun City | $221,155 | 12% | 98.6% |
| Sun City Festival | $342,653 | 4% | 99.1% |
| Sun City Grand | 363,146 | 5% | 98.5% |
| Sun City West | $285,185 | 7% | 98.8% |
| Trilogy at Vistancia | $481,600 | 9% | 99% |
| Victory at Verrado | $426,397 | .25% | 99.2% |
| Copy Right 2020 Sharon Rowlson | |
Are home prices dropping? The answer is no, across the board. The average sold price of homes, which is your equity, went up for every community in March compared to last year. So we did not see any price decreases. Arizona Traditions was the winner with a 25% increase. Sun City came in at 12%, while Trilogy at Vistancia and PebbleCreek tied with a 9% increase in home value.
Sold price to list price ratio ranged from 97.7% to 99%. The absorption rate was down for all communities except one. Some were down significantly. Victory at Verrado saw a 75% decrease with 3.55 months absorption rate.
Take Away
Homes did sell in March, with pending listings down significantly and new listings mostly down. Home prices did not fall compared to last year in March. It will be interesting to see how the numbers change in April, especially the sold data. It’s reasonable to think that most communities will see a drop in sales with pending listings and new listings down. As there will be a shortage of homes, will prices drop? Will buyers still be out there? Stay tuned.
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