As we move into spring here in the Phoenix West Valley, the real estate market is already showing its first meaningful shifts of 2026. New‑build communities continued to hold their momentum, while resale pricing softened across the more established neighborhoods — creating a clear divide in how values performed this quarter. If you’re tracking your home’s value or planning ahead, here’s what stood out in Q1.
Q1 2026 Snapshot
• New‑build communities continued to outperform resale neighborhoods in Q1, with Sterling Grove (+9.39%), Victory (+8.33%), PebbleCreek (+2.63%), CantaMia(+1.73%), and Sun City Festival (+1.11%) all posting gains.
• Resale‑only communities declined by an average of –5.3%, with individual drops ranging from –0.51% to –10.23% across Corte Bella, The Grand, Trilogy at Vistancia, Sun City West, Sun City, and Arizona Traditions
• Higher inventory and early‑year buyer hesitation contributed to softer resale pricing.
• April brought a noticeable uptick in activity, improving momentum heading into Q2.
Market Overview
The first quarter delivered a wide range of results across the West Valley’s 55+ communities — and the dividing line was unmistakable: every community with positive appreciation still has new‑home construction. That includes Sterling Grove, Victory, PebbleCreek, CantaMia, and Sun City Festival.
These communities outperformed the rest of the market thanks to builder activity, modern floorplans, and newer amenities, all of which continue to attract today’s buyers.
Sterling Grove led the way with a 9.39% increase, followed closely by Victory at Verrado at 8.33%. Both communities continue to benefit from strong demand, lifestyle amenities, and active construction.
PebbleCreek (+2.63%), CantaMia (+1.73%), and Sun City Festival (+1.11%) also posted positive gains — again, all communities where buyers still have the option of purchasing new homes.
In contrast, every resale‑only community saw year‑over‑year declines. These ranged from slight (Corte Bella at –0.51%) to more significant drops in The Grand (–1.53%), Trilogy at Vistancia (–6.16%), Sun City West (–6.64%), Sun City (–6.91%), and Arizona Traditions (–10.23%). Higher inventory and early‑year buyer hesitation played a role, especially in the more established neighborhoods.
⭐ Key Insight
Because MLS data does not include new‑build sales or builder incentives, communities with active construction can skew the overall averages. When we isolate the true resale neighborhoods — Corte Bella, The Grand, Trilogy at Vistancia, Sun City West, Sun City, and Arizona Traditions — home values declined by an average of about 5.3% in Q1. This resale‑only view provides the clearest indication of where actual home values are settling across the West Valley’s established 55+ communities.
The good news: April brought a noticeable shift, with stronger buyer engagement and better momentum heading into Q2.
📈 Home Value Rankings – March 2026
| Retirement Communities | March 2026 Median Estimated Value | March 2025 Median Estimated Value | 12 Month Home Value Change +/- |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 Sterling Grove** | $859,000 | $785,000 | 9.39% |
| #2 Victory at Verrado** | $650,000 | $600,000 | 8.33% |
| #3 PebbleCreek** | $570,000 | $555,000 | 2.63% |
| #4 Sun City Festival** | $455,000 | $450,000 | 1.11% |
| #5 CantaMia** | $425,000 | $418,500 | 1.73% |
| #6 Corte Bella | $587,000 | $590,000 | (-0.51%) |
| #7 The Grand (Sun City Grand) | $450,000 | $457,000 | (-1.53%) |
| #8 Trilogy at Vistancia | $640,000 | $682,500 | (-6.16%) |
| #9 Sun City West | $341,000 | $365,000 | (-6.64%) |
| #10 Sun City | $270,000 | $290,000 (-6.91%) | |
| #11 Arizona Traditions | $386,000 | $430,000 | (-10.23%) |
| Copy Right 2026 Sharon Rowlson |  |
Community Highlights: Highest and Lowest
With new‑build communities continuing to outperform and resale‑only neighborhoods seeing softer pricing, here’s how each 55+ community performed in Q1.
Highest Home Value Gains (Q1 2026)
Every community with positive appreciation this quarter has active new‑home construction — and that made all the difference.
New‑Build Influenced Communities:
Sterling Grove — +9.39% Supported by ongoing construction, modern amenities, and strong buyer demand.
Victory at Verrado — +8.33% Continues to benefit from newer floorplans, lifestyle amenities, and active builder presence.
PebbleCreek — +2.63% A mix of resale activity and ongoing new‑build influence keeps demand steady.
CantaMia at Estrella — +1.73% Builder incentives and modern designs helped maintain positive momentum.
Sun City Festival — +1.11% Active construction and contemporary layouts continue to attract buyers.
Communities That Softened (Q1 2026)
All declines occurred in resale‑only communities.
Resale‑Only Communities:
Corte Bella — –0.51% One of the most stable resale communities this quarter.
The Grand (Sun City Grand) — –1.53% Softening consistent with broader resale‑only trends.
Trilogy at Vistancia — –6.16% Aligned with the –5.3% resale‑only average; impacted by higher inventory.
Sun City West — –6.64% Reflects increased competition among available homes.
Sun City — –6.91% In line with softer pricing across established 55+ neighborhoods.
Arizona Traditions — –10.23% Largest resale‑only decline, influenced by higher inventory and slower early‑year activity.
What the Numbers Tell Us
The biggest takeaway from this quarter is the clear split between communities with active new‑home construction and those that are resale‑only. Every community with positive appreciation still has new homes being built.
On the other side, every resale‑only community saw year‑over‑year declines, with an average drop of –5.3%. Higher inventory and early‑year buyer hesitation played a role, especially in the more established neighborhoods.
This pattern shows exactly where demand is strongest — and why.
What this means for Sellers
- New‑build communities are holding stronger values, and in some cases rising.
- Resale‑only sellers must price strategically — buyers are comparing your home to newer options.
- Correct pricing from day one remains critical.
- Presentation matters — clean, updated, move‑in‑ready homes outperform.
- April’s momentum is a positive sign heading into Q2.
What This Means for Buyers
- More choices and more negotiating room in resale‑only communities.
- New‑build communities hold value, with fewer incentives but modern layouts and amenities.
- Interest rate easing brought more buyers back into the market.
- If you’re relocating for fall/winter, now is the time to watch inventory.
- Q2 will be more competitive than Q1 based on April activity.
Final Takeaway
The first quarter made one thing clear: new‑home communities are driving the strongest home‑value performance in the West Valley’s 55+ market. Every neighborhood with positive appreciation — including Sterling Grove, Victory, PebbleCreek, CantaMia, and Sun City Festival — still has active builder influence, and that continues to support values.
Meanwhile, the resale‑only communities softened, with year‑over‑year declines ranging from mild to significant and an average drop of –5.3% across the established neighborhoods. Buyers were cautious early in the year, compared options carefully, and negotiated more aggressively in the fully built‑out communities.
The shift in April is the bright spot. Showings, engagement, and contracts all improved, setting the stage for a stronger second quarter. Whether you’re buying or selling, understanding how new‑build activity shapes value is key to navigating today’s market with confidence.
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🔗 Additional Resources for Informed Buyers & Sellers
- 🏜️ Looking for more context? Read the 2025 Year‑End Home Values Report to compare how each 55+ community finished last year. https://retireaz-resortstyle.com/phoenix-retirement-community-home-values-2025-year-end/
- Want to compare HOA fees across communities? Explore and print your own copy of Phoenix Retirement Community HOA Fees.
- Freddie Mac – Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) Track weekly mortgage rate trends that influenced buyer activity this quarter. https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
