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Phoenix Retirement Community Home Values 3rd Qtr

Oct 2022 Phoenix Retirement Community Market Report with background of Sedona rock during fall

Phoenix Retirement Community Home Values 3rd Qtr 2022

Home values were on the decline in Phoenix retirement communities during the third quarter of 2022. Fall is in full swing in sunny Arizona. The cooler temperatures have also brought cooling home price growth. The market is slowing in all the Phoenix retirement communities. This is most noticeable in the 3d quarter of the year. Homes are staying on the MLS longer, bidding wars are rare, and we are seeing price decreases. Homeowner equity remains strong. We saw the writing on the wall, with the second quarter showing just a 1% increase in home values. Home equity is still in very positive territory for the year, but lower than the appreciation highs homeowners were seeing in the first and second quarters. So in this month’s market report, let’s explore what’s going on nationally and then, more specifically, focus on Phoenix retirement communities.

National Housing Outlook

Here are recent quotes from Realtor.com to give you a feel for the national real estate market.

For homeowners deciding whether to make a move this year, remember that listing prices – while lower than a few months ago – remain higher than in prior years, so you’re still likely to find opportunities to cash in on record-high levels of equity, particularly if you’ve owned your home for a longer period of time.

This fall, a more moderate pace of home selling, more listings to choose from, and softening price growth will provide some breathing room for buyers searching for a home during what is typically the best time to buy a home.”

Phoenix Retirement Community Outlook

Resort-Style Pool in Trilogy at Vistancia at the Kiva recreation center
Phoenix Retirement Community Home Values 3rd Qtr (Resort-Style Pool in Trilogy at Vistancia at the Kiva recreation center)

Now, let’s look at our local phoenix retirement community real estate market to see how it compares. Table 1 shows a 12-month snapshot of average sales prices for October 2022 and October 2021, along with the change in home values for the top 10 phoenix retirement communities I work in. The second quarter of the year had the highest home values, with an average of 26%. This quarter home values for the year have dropped to 21%. That’s a 5 % difference. PebbleCreek is leading the way with a 27% increase. Four communities are tied at 22%, three at 23%, and Cantamia is currently the lowest at 10%. So we are inline with what’s happening nationally. Home equity has slowed and even gone down a little. Homeowners still have record levels of equity.

(Table 1)  Home Values 3rd Quarter 2022

Retirement Communities
2022 Avgage Sale Price
2021 Avgage Sale Price
12 Month Home Value Change +/-
#1 PebbleCreek**
$576,000
$454,000
27%
#2 Victory at Verrado**
$690,000
$563,000
22%
#3 Sun City West
$426,000
$350,000
22%
#3 Sun City Grand
$509,000
$420,000
22%
#3 Trilogy at Vistancia**
$724,000
$592,000
22%
#4 Corte Bella
$645,000
$535,000
21%
#4 Sun City Festival**
$518,000
$430,000
21%
#4 Sun City
$321,000
$265,000
21%
#5 Arizona Traditions
$422,000
$360,000
20%
#6 CantaMia**
$336,000
$307,000
10%
Copy Right 2022
Sharon Rowlson

Table 2 shows you a 12-month snapshot of home values for June 2022 through June 2021. The average home value increase was 26%. If you would like to read the 2nd Quarter home value blog post, click HERE.

(Table 2) Home Values 2nd Quarter 2022

Table 3 shows you a 12-month snapshot of home values for March 2022 through March 2021. The average home value increase was 25%. If you would like to read the 1st quarter blog post, click HERE.

Retirement Communities
2022 Avgage Sale Price
2021 Avgage Sale Price
12 Month Home Value Change +/-
#1 Victory at Verrado**
$767,000
$558,000
38%
#2 PebbleCreek**
$576,000
$454,000
27%
#3 Sun City Festival**
$512,000
$406,000
26%
#4 Sun City West
$427,000
$338,000
26%
#5 Corte Bella
$650,000
$521,000
25%
#6 Sun City Grand
$511,000
$410,000
25%
#7 Trilogy at Vistancia**
$709,000
576,000
23%
#8 CantaMia**
$487,000
$396,000
23%
#9 Sun City
$320,000
$261,000
23%
#10 Arizona Traditions
$431,000
$356,000
21%
Copy Right 2022
Sharon Rowlson

(Table 3) Home Values 1st Quarter 2022

Retirement Communities
2022 Avgage Sale Price
2021 Avgage Sale Price
12 Month Home Value Change +/-
#1 Victory at Verrado**
$700,000
$500,000
30%
#2 Corte Bella
$600,000
$485,000
29%
#3 Sun City West
$400,000
$320,000
29%
#4 PebbleCreek**
$569,000
$449,000
27%
#5 Sun City Grand
$494,000
$392,000
26%
#6 CantaMia**
$464,000
$377,000
23%
#7 Sun City
$310,000
$253,000
23%
#8 Sun City Festival**
$496,000
$406,000
22%
#9 Trilogy at Vistancia**
$695,000
573,000
21%
#10 Arizona Traditions
$415,000
$352,000
18%
Copy Right 2022
Sharon Rowlson
* Communities ranked in order of home value increase for a 12-month period (3/21-3/22).
** Data includes resale and spec homes, not new builds, so communities building new will have higher home value increases than shown.
*** Average sales price and home value percentage rounded to the nearest whole number.
**** Stats from AZ MLS. Info deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

In review, Phoenix retirement communities are experiencing the same slowing of the real estate market as the rest of the country. That being said, homeowners are enjoying record-high equity. The peak was in the second quarter of the year, with home values averaging 26% for the top 10 communities I work in. Here are the main takeaways from this blog post.

  1. Home value (equity) increases went down 5% in the third quarter of 2022.
  2. Home price growth is slowing, but still very positive year-to-date home equity at 21%.
  3. Inventory is increasing.
  4. Very few bidding wars.

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