Phoenix Retirement Community Home Values Off of Highs in 4th Qtr 2022
Home values continued to decline in the 4th quarter for Phoenix retirement communities. We seem to be in line with what is happening on a national level. With higher interest rates and absent buyers, more sellers reduced their prices in December. Inventory continues to climb, creating more competition for sellers. Homes are staying on the market longer. All this is good for buyers as the hot real estate market cools. This month’s market report will look at the national housing outlook and then at where home values are for Phoenix retirement communities at the end of 2022.
National Housing Outlook
Here are some recent quotes from a Realtor.com article about cooling prices on the national level in December.
Realtor.com Cheif Economist
“That lack of buyers resulted in about 13.6% of all home sellers reducing their listing prices in December, up from 7.1% who made price cuts a year earlier.
“Prices are moderating. Mortgage rates came down. And there are more homes for sale,” says Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale. “It’s a continuation of what we’ve been seeing.”
Rocket Mortgage CEO
Jay Farner, who presides over America’s largest mortgage lender Rocket Mortgage, says, “the days of sellers holding all the power are over.”
“Those moments of…there are 20 offers coming in are gone now. Buyers can take a bit more time,” Farner, the CEO of Rocket Companies, told CNN in an exclusive interview. “The buyer has a little bit more power or control on their side.”
Phoenix Retirement Community Outlook
Phoenix Retirement Community Home Values Dip in the 4th QTR
Below are four tables representing each quarter of the year for home values in 2022. The 2nd quarter is the height of the market. You’ll be able to see the market start to change in the 3rd quarter and more of the same in the 4th. Will this trend continue in 2023? If so, we’re headed for a more balanced market where sellers are not calling all the shots.
(Table 1) Home Values 4th Quarter 2022
Table 1 below shows a 12-month snapshot of home values for December 2022 through December 2021. The average home value increase was 17%. This is down 5% from the 3rd quarter and 9% from the market high of 26% during the 2nd quarter. Do you see a trend here?
The top 10 retirement communities I work in saw a range of 21% to 15% of equity in their homes. Trilogy at Vistancia led the group, and Cantamia lagged. But stay tuned; next quarter could be different. At this point, we are looking at equity probably dipping more, but not significantly, according to the experts.
| Retirement Communities | 2022 Average Sale Price | 2021 Average Sale Price | 12 Month Home Value Change +/- |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 Trilogy at Vistancia** | $726,000 | $600,000 | 21% |
| #2 PebbleCreek** | $577,000 | $479,000 | 20% |
| #3Victory at Verrado** | $678,000 | $574,000 | 18% |
| #3 Arizona Traditions | $433,000 | $368,000 | 18% |
| #4 Sun City West | $425,000 | $363,000 | 17% |
| #4 Sun City Grand | $508,000 | $432,000 | 17% |
| #5 Corte Bella | $644,000 | $554,000 | 16% |
| #5 Sun City Festival** | $515,000 | $445,000 | 16% |
| #5 Sun City | $316,000 | $274,000 | 16% |
| #6 CantaMia** | $486,000 | $424,000 | 15% |
| Copy Right 2022 Sharon Rowlson |  |
(Table 2) Home Values 3rd Quarter 2022
Table 2 shows a 12-month snapshot of home values for the 3rd quarter, October 2022 through October 2021. The average home value increase was 21%. So this is where the market begins to shift toward buyers. If you would like to read the 3rd Quarter home value blog post, click HERE.
| Retirement Communities | 2022 Average Sale Price | 2021 Average Sale Price | 12 Month Home Value Change +/- |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 PebbleCreek** | $576,000 | $454,000 | 27% |
| #2 Victory at Verrado** | $690,000 | $563,000 | 22% |
| #3 Sun City West | $426,000 | $350,000 | 22% |
| #3 Sun City Grand | $509,000 | $420,000 | 22% |
| #3 Trilogy at Vistancia** | $724,000 | $592,000 | 22% |
| #4 Corte Bella | $645,000 | $535,000 | 21% |
| #4 Sun City Festival** | $518,000 | $430,000 | 21% |
| #4 Sun City | $321,000 | $265,000 | 21% |
| #5 Arizona Traditions | $422,000 | $360,000 | 20% |
| #6 CantaMia** | $336,000 | $307,000 | 10% |
| Copy Right 2022 Sharon Rowlson | |
(Table 3) Home Values 2nd Quarter 2022
Table 3 shows a 12-month snapshot of home values for the 2nd quarter, June 2022 through June 2021. The average home value increase was 26%. This is the height of the market. If you would like to read the 2nd Quarter home value blog post, click HERE.
| Retirement Communities | 2022 Average Sale Price | 2021 Average Sale Price | 12 Month Home Value Change +/- |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 Victory at Verrado** | $767,000 | $558,000 | 38% |
| #2 PebbleCreek** | $576,000 | $454,000 | 27% |
| #3 Sun City Festival** | $512,000 | $406,000 | 26% |
| #4 Sun City West | $427,000 | $338,000 | 26% |
| #5 Corte Bella | $650,000 | $521,000 | 25% |
| #6 Sun City Grand | $511,000 | $410,000 | 25% |
| #7 Trilogy at Vistancia** | $709,000 | 576,000 | 23% |
| #8 CantaMia** | $487,000 | $396,000 | 23% |
| #9 Sun City | $320,000 | $261,000 | 23% |
| #10 Arizona Traditions | $431,000 | $356,000 | 21% |
| Copy Right 2022 Sharon Rowlson | |
(Table 4) Home Values 1st Quarter 2022
Table 4 shows a 12-month snapshot of home values for the first quarter, March 2022 through March 2021. The average home value increase was 25%. Here we almost reached the peak of the market. If you would like to read the 1st quarter blog post, click HERE.
| Retirement Communities | 2022 Average Sale Price | 2021 Average Sale Price | 12 Month Home Value Change +/- |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 Victory at Verrado** | $700,000 | $500,000 | 30% |
| #2 Corte Bella | $600,000 | $485,000 | 29% |
| #3 Sun City West | $400,000 | $320,000 | 29% |
| #4 PebbleCreek** | $569,000 | $449,000 | 27% |
| #5 Sun City Grand | $494,000 | $392,000 | 26% |
| #6 CantaMia** | $464,000 | $377,000 | 23% |
| #7 Sun City | $310,000 | $253,000 | 23% |
| #8 Sun City Festival** | $496,000 | $406,000 | 22% |
| #9 Trilogy at Vistancia** | $695,000 | 573,000 | 21% |
| #10 Arizona Traditions | $415,000 | $352,000 | 18% |
| Copy Right 2022 Sharon Rowlson | |
**Stats from AZ MLS. Info deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
To sum it all up, 2022 was the year of significant changes in the real estate market, nationally and locally. What a difference eight months make. The market is cooling due to inflation and rising interest rates. A slowing market is good for buyers. As inventory increases, there is more competition, and the bidding wars of the past are almost nonexistent. So, here are the main takeaways from this article.
- Home value (equity) is down on average 9% from the 2nd quarter’s high
- Home price growth is slowing, but still very positive year-to-date home equity at 17%.
- Inventory is increasing.
- Homes are staying on the market longer.
- Very few bidding wars.
- The market is becoming more balanced between buyer and seller.
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