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Real Estate Trends – September 2026

Sedona red rock mountain landscape with the blog title ‘Real Estate Trends – September 202

Key Points:

  • The Phoenix West Valley 55+ market is not following national inventory trends.
  • Six out of ten communities have the same or fewer listings than last August.
  • Builder‑active communities are driving most of the increases.
  • Resale‑only communities remain flat or down heading into fall.
  • Buyer incentives are strongest right now in builder communities.
  • Arizona now requires seller thumbprints for certain notarized closing documents (as of Sept 12, 2026).

The national headlines continue to talk about rising inventory and a market where sellers outnumber buyers, but here in the Phoenix West Valley 55+ communities, the story looks very different. Our market moves on its own seasonal rhythm, and this month’s numbers highlight just how local these trends really are.

Before we get into the data, I want to share something I see often when working with buyers. I recently helped a client who toured several resale homes in multiple 55+ communities, including Sun City Festival. She loved the locations and amenities in the older neighborhoods, but the thought of updating an older home didn’t fit her lifestyle. She has always lived in newer or recently built homes, and that preference shaped her search more than anything else.

The communities still building new homes often sit farther out or come with a higher price point because of their convenience to stores and amenities. In her case, she chose a spec home in Sun City Festival. Yes, it’s about 11 miles from the nearest grocery store — and medical services will take time to catch up — but the area is growing quickly. Every community has tradeoffs, and for her, the benefits of a new home outweighed the distance.

This is exactly why builder‑active communities continue to show movement in the data: they attract buyers who want newer homes, fewer projects, and modern layouts, even if it means driving a little farther today.

August 2026 vs. August 2025 – Listing Changes in Phoenix West Valley 55+ Communities

Builder Communities Drive the Increases

The communities showing the strongest year‑over‑year listing increases are the ones with active builders or recent phases of new construction. Even though not all new homes appear in MLS, the overall activity still influences inventory patterns.

Sterling Grove leads the month with a 41% increase, driven by ongoing construction and steady resale movement. PebbleCreek and Victory at Verrado also posted solid gains (9.5% and 6.5%), reflecting a mix of builder activity and strong buyer demand. The Grand (Sun City Grand) shows a 9.5% increase, notable for a resale‑only community.

Flat Communities Still Show Builder Influence

Two communities landed at 0% change this month: Trilogy at Vistancia and Sun City Festival. Sun City Festival is still building new homes, but unless those homes are listed as spec inventory, they don’t appear in MLS. The flat number reflects mostly resale activity — not the full picture of construction happening behind the scenes.

Resale‑Only Communities Show Declines

Several resale‑focused communities saw year‑over‑year decreases:

Sun City (‑1%)

Arizona Traditions (‑13%)

Corte Bella (‑50%)

These declines align more closely with national patterns, where resale inventory is tightening as sellers hesitate to list and buyers remain selective. Sun City West bucked the trend with a small increase in listing of 3%.

CantaMia’s Drop Reflects Limited MLS Inventory

CantaMia, despite being a community with ongoing new construction, shows a ‑38% decline in MLS‑listed resale homes. This number does not include new‑build inventory unless the builder listed spec homes in MLS. It’s a clear example of why MLS data alone doesn’t always tell the full story in mixed‑construction communities.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

The Phoenix West Valley 55+ market continues to behave differently than national trends. Builder‑active communities are driving increases. Mixed‑construction communities may appear flat or down due to how MLS captures inventory. Resale‑only communities are tightening, creating more competition for well‑priced homes.

For buyers, opportunities vary widely by community. For sellers, pricing and presentation matter more than ever — especially in neighborhoods where inventory is declining.alley 55+ market does not match the national trend of rising inventory.

Buyer & Seller Tips

Buyer Tip: Builder inventory is more flexible right now, and incentives are strong. Once seasonal demand picks up, those incentives often tighten. If you’re considering a new home, this is one of the best times of year to negotiate.

Seller Tip: As of September 12, 2026, Arizona now requires home sellers to provide a thumbprint in the notary’s official journal when signing certain closing and transfer documents. This applies to typical home sales and refinances and is part of the state’s expanded anti‑fraud measures. It’s a small step, but one worth knowing before you head to closing..

Looking Ahead

As we move into late September and October, we should begin to see inventory rise across the West Valley 55+ communities as sellers prepare for winter visitor traffic. The seasonal pattern is consistent year after year, and based on current data, we are right on schedule.

If you’re planning a move in the West Valley 55+ communities — whether buying or selling — and want clarity on what today’s numbers mean for your situation, I’m here to help you make a confident, well‑timed decision.

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